Think for Yourself

Gun Statistics

Lessons From a Lamp Post: Why the numbers don't add up. Part 3 of 4

 

Unlike Michael Moore's persuasive movie Columbine, data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Justice show a very weak correlation between gun-death and gun-laws, as does the Center for Disease Control which has kept data on gun-homicide despite resistance from firearm support groups. None of these studies have been able to establish a relationship of more guns equals more gun deaths. The real question is not about the number of firearm laws but whether the laws ultimately safeguard the citizens they are intended to protect.

 

Gun accidents are tragic and we tend to hear about them, but accidental gun death is relatively rare accounting for only 1.8% all gun deaths. “Undetermined” (0.7%) and “legal intervention/war” (1.0%) categories were even less likely. In the United States where “self-inflicted” death by gunshot is taken into account the thesis of more guns equals more gun deaths is supported more closely. Even though this correlation is astonishing it’s not surprising since such findings are intuitive. What is surprising is how high the gun-suicide rate actually is. As one of the “four major mechanisms of injury in 2009”, 59.8% of all “firearm injury deaths” were suicides and 36.7% were homicides. Suicide tops homicide by nearly two to one in gun-deaths.

 

So, as we enter further into the debate about firearm laws, we should keep in mind that whereas spectacular massacres with exotic weapons generate headlines, the larger numbers are composed of pensive individuals who give up fighting the forces they see arrayed against them and take the nearest exit. Unfortunately if firearms are outlawed the “nearest exit” will be something else, which is supported by countries with strict gun control laws that have higher suicide rates than those without gun control laws.

 

I would agree with the old adage that says we use statistics like a drunken person uses a lamp post, more for support than illumination. Despite the evidence, some of my friends remain convinced that the wide availability of firearms in this nation is a major factor in the rate of gun-related deaths, and they firmly believe that there is a need to reduce the number of guns. Unfortunately, this leads them to believe that removing firearms from law abiding citizens will reduce violence on the street. I believe that even if the number of guns could be reduced to zero which it can’t, crime isn’t going to go away. Guns don’t kill people and the problem isn’t the tool.

Fallen Heros

 

All gave some - Some gave all.

 

 

September 11, 2001

On September 11 2001, four passenger airliners were hijacked and flown into buildings in a suicide attack which resulted in almost 3,000 deaths, including the 227 civilians and 19 hijackers aboard the four planes. It also was the deadliest incident for firefighters in the history of the United States. These four coordinated terrorist attacks launched upon the United States by the Islamic terrorist group al-Qaeda changed our world forever.

 

Many countries, including the United States, strengthened their anti-terrorism legislation and expanded law enforcement powers. Congress rushed to pass legislation to strengthen security controls and the President signed the USA PATRIOT act into law. The stated purpose of the Patriot Act was "Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism". Its intent was to "deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools, and for other purposes".

 

From the very beginning opponents of the law criticized the authorization of indefinite detentions of immigrants; the permission given law enforcement officers to search a home or business without the owner’s or the occupant’s consent or knowledge; the expanded use of National Security Letters, which allows the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to search telephone, e-mail, and financial records without a court order; and the expanded access of law enforcement agencies to business records, including library and financial records.

 

Several legal challenges have been brought against the act and the Federal courts have ruled a number of the provisions as unconstitutional. Nevertheless, the reauthorization bill, criticized by both the Republican and Democratic parties for ignoring civil liberty concerns, kept most of the act's original language intact and was signed into law on March 9 and 10, 2006.

 

Not the Problem

Guns Are Not the Problem

 

Research Continues

Lessons From a Lamp Post: Why the numbers don't add up. Part 2 of 4

 

There isn't yet adequate data on the link between gun deaths and gun laws, even though a more recent study suggests that states with the most laws had lower gun-death rates than states with the least number of laws. The authors acknowledge that the research has limitations: “Just because the two factors are present, doesn’t mean that one caused the other”.

 

The researchers and critics agree that this study falls short of proving a direct link between the number of gun laws and gun violence. The study did not include a complete list of gun laws; it does not account for differences between a state’s specific laws; it does not include measures for how hard states work to enforce their laws; and it does not evaluate the effect on the flow of firearms between states with different laws.

 

One of the main points that limit this study’s conclusions is how the rate of firearm ownership in states impacts the correlation of gun laws and gun deaths. States generally fall to either end of the spectrum, strong laws with fewer deaths or weak laws with more deaths. The problem of associating the rate of firearm ownership with the rate of violent deaths is that it’s easier to enact these laws in states that have a low rate of firearm ownership to begin with, because gun ownership is not as important in those states. This study cannot say that these laws, individually or in aggregate, drive firearm death rates up or down.

 

For example: The Brady Campaign named California as the state with the strongest gun control laws in 2011, and yet, according to data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's uniform crime reports, California, with a population of about 37 million, had 1,220 gun murders in 2011; 68 percent of all murders for that year, or 3.25 murders per 100,000 people.

 

"What is very unusual is that California also has a program by which guns can be removed or “recovered” from people who subsequently become prohibited from owning firearms. While it might make sense that it would have a high number of murders due to its high population numbers, notice that gun control has not had an impact on gun crime.

 

Texas has a population of about 25.6 million and it had 699 total gun murders in 2011 (nearly half that of California); or 2.91 murders per 100,000 people. The Brady Campaign named Utah, with a population of 2.8 million as the state with the weakest gun controls in 2011, and it experienced 26 gun murders in 2011; or 0.97 murders per 100,000 people. Notice that in Utah gun crime isn’t high like the Brady Campaign might argue, and notice again that gun control is not a predictor of gun crime.

 

The Federal Bureau of Investigation's data also notes that Washington, D.C. had the highest murder rate per 100,000 people. The nation's capital saw 12 gun murders per 100,000 in 2011, even though in 1976 the District of Columbia required all guns be registered, banned new handgun sales and required guns stored at home to be dissembled or locked up. These measures which lasted more than three decades didn't have the desired effect, demonstrating that the tool is not the problem.

 

In 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported, “The gun ban had an unintended effect: It emboldened criminals because they knew that law-abiding District residents were unarmed and powerless to defend themselves. Violent crime increased after the law was enacted, with homicides rising to 369 in 1988, from 188 in 1976 when the ban started. By 1993, annual homicides had reached 454”.

 

Though it should be noted that the gun murders started decreasing in 1994, once the gun ban was struck down murders in the District went down steadily, from 186 in 2008 to 88 in 2012, which is the lowest number since the law was enacted in 1976. Today, Washington, D.C. still has some of the strictest gun laws in the nation, and yet the gun murder rate remains the highest in the United States. Once again, focusing on the tool is not the answer.

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